As Week 4 begins, six- and seven-point favorites are dropping at a "hectic clip," something that Sports Betting Hall of Famer Johnny Avello says he has rarely witnessed in the NFL thus far.

“I have seen times early in the season that are really unpredictable, but this year seems to be a little wilder than some of those, because even though the underdogs have done well early in the season, to have this many just win out right? It is very strange,” he says.

 

So far, sportsbooks are cleaning up

Now is a fantastic moment to run a sportsbook. To put it mildly, it was a bad three weeks for bettors. If you've been picking the Overs, you've also been getting hammered there because of the low score. According to Avello, this is why many lines are tight heading into this weekend.

The big starting margin for sports bookies indicates they'll probably reinvest in bonuses and promotions to retain customers betting.

Before last night's Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants game, Avello, Director of Race & Sportsbook Operations at DraftKings, gets up early and heads to his Las Vegas office to discuss what he's been observing on the NFL front.

And continuing the trend, the Cowboys, who were the moneyline favorite going into the game (the spread was -6 at BetMGM and -5.5 at DraftKings), defeated the Giants 20-15. Based on the lineups on paper, the game should have been much tighter.

“It hasn’t been good for bettors betting teasers, money line parlays and even contests – Survivor contests, the majority of the group there has taken a real hit the first three weeks,” Avello says. “It’s a strange trend going on early. I can’t put a finger on it. I think that offenses for teams are not as tuned up as they would normally be. They only played three preseason games. Some of the players aren’t playing in a lot of those games. If they are they’re just playing a small amount of time.

 

Inexperienced NFL QBs having a big impact

“I just don’t think the offenses are clicking. You see that scoring is down now. There’s also a lot of new quarterbacks in the league who are starting. It used to be where these younger quarterbacks would have to sit behind a veteran for a couple of years, learn the trade and then get put in. But these guys are getting thrown right into the games. A few are performing. Some are struggling out there.”

Avello notes that NFL games are speedier. There is a lot of rushing by the quarterbacks, a lot of short throwing, and less downfield passing than there used to be because the game clock is always running.

“It’s just a weird start to the season,” Avello says. “I believe things will level out. The favourites will start to win more. You’ll start to see scoring go up.”

 

Difficult times for the oddsmakers

He says that oddsmakers are adjusting in light of the upsets. Teams may not be as strong as the oddsmakers predicted at the beginning of the season.

The 49ers, who are -10.5 favorites at DraftKings, are the lone overwhelming favorite this weekend for their Sunday home game versus the Patriots.

Line-setting has undoubtedly been difficult due to quarterback injuries that have cast doubt on their weekend status, including those of the Vikings' Sam Darnold, the 49ers' Brock Purdy, and the Chargers' Justin Herbert, to mention three. Additionally, the oddities with favorites losing so far.

“The difference between a quarterback starting and not starting could be anywhere from three to seven, eight points, so that really can swing the spread and change everything,” he says.

Still, some perspective on the betting front is needed.

 

Johnny Avello: Things will even out

“You cannot judge how [the sportsbook] is going to do in the NFL by the first three weeks of the season,” he says. “That’s not going to continue. There’s going to be some weeks where we get dinged up pretty good. All the favorites will win for a few weeks, for sure, and maybe even more than a few, so no one knows what lies ahead.

“So as bookmakers, just stay steady and continue to do all the work you do. And when things go well, they go well, when they go poor, then everything falls off the table. So, you just stay consistent in what you do.

“With the 49ers this week, I would expect them to win that game, but the way the season has been going so far, who knows? There is a lot of teams that need wins. The Bengals are in trouble. Ravens-Bills is going to be a great game, a heavily bet game. The Commanders are going to have a rough time in Arizona. There are a lot of games out there where you could see some underdogs win, certainly some smaller priced underdogs.”